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11.12.202412.2024с 01.01.2024
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Journal section "Life quality and human potential of territories"

Poverty, Demographic Development and Economic Growth in Russian Regions: Assessing Interrelationships

Manaeva I.V., Mel’nikov V.V.

Volume 28, Issue 4, 2024

Manaeva I.V., Mel’nikov V.V. (2024). Poverty, demographic development and economic growth in Russian regions: Assessing interrelationships. Problems of Territory's Development, 28 (4), 102–119. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2024.4.132.7

DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2024.4.132.7

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Currently, the issues of socio-economic inequality, economic growth, demography and poverty are the actual problem area of the study of regional economy. The increase in the number of poor people exacerbates social contradictions, risks of political instability in society. The aim of the research is to quantify the relationship between poverty parameters and demography, and economic growth in Russia’s regions. The paper uses two methodological approaches: 1) the concept of the Kuznets curve, according to which the dependence of inequality and economic growth is nonlinear in the form of a parabola with branches directed downward; 2) the construction of a system of models for assessing the impact of a number of factors on the poverty level in the regions of the Russian Federation. The regions of the Russian Federation have an inverse dependence of migration growth on the poverty level, as the young working-age population tends to live in favorable cities and regions. We did not note any dependence of natural population growth on the poverty level. We did not observe confirmation of the classical Kuznets hypothesis. The article obtains a U-shaped curve, which indicates the reduction of poverty up to a certain level, after passing the point of extremum, economic growth is accompanied by an increase in poverty. Economic factors and innovation factor have a significant impact on the poverty level in the region. A 1% increase in GRP per capita will reduce poverty by 0.25%, a 1% increase in the level of innovation activity of organizations will reduce poverty by 0.2%, a 1% increase in exports per capita will reduce poverty by 1.35%, and a 1% increase in imports per capita will reduce poverty by 0.7%. The increase in the share of persons of unemployed age by 1% contributes to the growth of the poor population by 0.32%. The practical value of the work lies in a better understanding of the principles and trends of poverty in Russian regions, which can be used in the development of appropriate socio-economic programs aimed at improving the quality of life

Keywords

Region, poverty, economic growth, Kuznets curve, demography, migration growth, natural increase