The article analyzes the situation that concerns the older generation represented by the age group of 50 – 72, on the regional labor market. The issue of labor force ageing has been studied by domestic and foreign representatives of various disciplines – labor economics and sociology, demography and regional economy. The studies were conducted in areas such as the assessment of the productivity of elderly workers, the changes in economic growth under the conditions of population ageing, and the regulation of the pension system. The novelty of the present study consists in the fact that it analyzes characteristics of supply and demand of the labor force of the older generation in the context of demographic trends of population ageing observed in Russia’s regions (economic activity of population, employment and unemployment). The study used both general scientific methods (logical analysis, synthesis), and statistical tools of data processing (correlation analysis, linear regression technique). The article presents a comparative analysis of Russia, the Northwestern Federal District and the Vologda Oblast. The author reveals an increased proportion of the older generation in the total size of economically active population, both employed and unemployed. The article discusses reasons for increasing economic activity on the part of the older generation: low standard of living, and the institutional features of pension provision. The author determines empirically that the aggregate supply in the labor market is inflexible in nature, which corresponds to the theoretical results obtained by J. Schumpeter. On the basis of linear regression method, the article presents a short-term forecast of economic activity and employment in older age groups. in addition, the unemployment rate is calculated at the constant percentage of the older generation as participants on the labor market – a theoretical indicator to assess the impact of demographic ageing on the overall unemployment rate. The author reveals that when the demographic situation does not change, the unemployment rate may be reduced by 1 – 4%, which is consistent with the strategic objectives of the national and regional economy. In conclusion, the author stresses the need to adopt regulatory measures in order to adapting the labor market to the increasing share of the older generation, including the creation and implementation of educational programs that allow the older generation to update their professional knowledge and competences. According to the author of the article, it is also necessary to improve the work of the employment service. The results of the article can be used by the regional authorities in the elaboration of employment policy
Keywords
unemployment, labor market, economic activity, ageing of the labor force